User manual PALISADE @RISK 4.5

[. . . ] Guide to Using @RISK Risk Analysis and Simulation Add-In for Microsoft Excel ® Version 4. 5 June, 2005 Palisade Corporation 798 Cascadilla St. Ithaca, NY USA 14850 (607) 277-8000 (607) 277-8001 (fax) http://www. palisade. com (website) sales@palisade. com (e-mail) Copyright Notice Copyright © 2005, Palisade Corporation. Trademark Acknowledgments Microsoft, Excel and Windows are registered trademarks of Microsoft, Inc. IBM is a registered trademark of International Business Machines, Inc. Palisade, TopRank, BestFit and RISKview are registered trademarks of Palisade Corporation. [. . . ] For more information on shift factors, see Chapter 6: Distribution Fitting. · 290 Fitting Menu · Delimiter values (Left and Right X, P entries on Comparison graph, Difference entry on Difference graph, Delimiter entry on PP and Q-Q graphs). These entries display the current values for delimiters set on a graph. These entries display the statistics calculated for both the displayed fitted distribution and the distribution of the input data. · GOF The GOF (or Goodness of Fit) tab displays the results of goodness-offit tests that were calculated during fitting. Test results are displayed for each of the three available tests (Chi-Sq, A-D and K-S) that are performed. Goodness-of-Fit information is only available when the Input Data type is Sampled Values. The goodness-of-fit statistic tells you how probable it is that a given distribution function produced your data set. The goodness-of-fit statistic can be used for comparing the values to the goodness-of-fit of other distribution functions. The entries in the GOF report include: · · · Test Value, or the test statistic for the fitted probability distribution for each of the three tests. For more information on P-values, see Chapter 6: Distribution Fitting. Rank, or the rank of the fitted distribution among all distributions fit for each of the three tests. C Val, or critical values, at different significance levels for each of the three tests. For more information on critical values and their calculation, see Chapter 6: Distribution Fitting. 291 · Reference: @RISK Model Window Commands · Bin statistics for each bin for both the input and the fitted distribution (Chi-Sq test only). These entries return the min and max of each bin plus the probability value for the bin for both the input and the fitted distribution. Bin sizes can be set using the Fitting menu Define Chi-Sq Binning command. 292 Fitting Menu Fit Results ­ Fit Summary Window The Fit Summary window displays a summary of calculated statistics and test results for all distributions fit to the current data set. Fit Summary Window The following entries are shown in the Fit Summary window: · Formula, or distribution and arguments for the fitted distribution. When a fit is used as input for an @RISK model, this formula corresponds with the distribution function that will be placed in your spreadsheet. Parameters, or individual entries for each of the distribution parameter values included in Formula. Shift is any X-value shift that is applied if the input data exceeds the range of the fitted distribution. A shifted distribution is expressed in the form Dist(arg1, arg2. . . argn) ± Shift, where a sample drawn from the shifted distribution will have the shift amount added to or subtracted from it. For more information on shift factors, see Chapter 6: Distribution Fitting. These entries display the statistics calculated for all fitted distributions and the distribution of the input data. · · Reference: @RISK Model Window Commands 293 · Targets identify the probability of achieving a specific outcome or the value associated with any probability level. Target entries have default values (10% through 95%) that you may change if you wish. Either values or probabilities may be entered into the target area in the Fit Summary window. [. . . ] 465, 467, 471­77 Transform Data Command . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306 True EV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 Truncation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178, 437 Tutorial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [. . . ]